SALT LAKE CITY — Leaders of the state agency that oversees the health of the Great Salt Lake say they're concerned after the lake's levels peaked about 1½ feet below its highest point last year.
And with odds leaning toward another hotter and drier than normal summer for its basin, they say it could slide closer toward the "serious adverse effects" range outlined in the state's management plan. However, experts believe they will be able to stave off many of the ecosystem problems that developed when the lake reached an all-time low in 2022.
"This is a good news, bad news situation," said Brian Steed, Utah's Great Salt Lake commissioner, as he provided an update on the lake's condition to reporters on Tuesday.
Where the lake stands
Great Salt Lake's southern arm peaked at 4,193.6 feet elevation, according to state and federal data, well below last year's peak of 4,195.2 feet elevation, which was its highest point in five years. It then dropped 3 feet last summer and only gained about half of that over this past year's snowpack and spring snowmelt cycle.
Some of that is because of a lower snowpack and worse spring runoff, but some of that is because more water is flowing toward its northern arm as the lake evens out for the first time in years. The lake's northern arm briefly reached as high as 4,192.9 feet elevation, and it remains higher than any point in 2024.
Its two arms had been divided by several feet after the state raised a berm along the Great Salt Lake Causeway to help improve the southern arm's salinity levels that had become dangerously high, threatening the lake's vital ecosystem.
The good news
Despite lower water levels this year, salinity rates remain within the lake's healthy threshold. Levels are slightly up to 109 grams per liter at a U.S. Geological Survey site at the Saltair Boat Harbor; it's up to 112 grams per liter at the agency's Gilbert Bay site, both of which are far below the peak of 185 grams per liter in 2022.
Steed credits actions taken three years ago for helping maintain healthy salinity levels, which are vital for the success of brine shrimp production and the millions of migratory birds that utilize the lake.
Salinity levels were so high in 2022 that they brought the lake's ecosystem to the brink of collapse. Utah leaders responded by raising a berm located at the Great Salt Lake Causeway breach that helps manage the two arms, mainly because water from the lake's saltier northern arm had started to flow into the southern arm.
With the southern arm still higher than the northern arm, salinity levels haven't been as much of a problem this year. State wildlife experts are currently monitoring brine shrimp and birds to see if this year's lower water levels are still impacting species.
The state has also taken steps to ensure that salinity levels never reach the levels they did three years ago. Utah lawmakers passed a bill last year that requires the berm to block the two arms should the southern arm drop to 4,190 feet elevation, for ecosystem protection.
While the lake faces the risk of dropping another 2-3 feet this summer, the Office of the Great Salt Lake Commissioner currently projects that the southern arm will remain in the 4,191 feet elevation range.
"In terms of managing salinity, we are in a good spot," Steed said.
The bad news
However, that means the lake will likely drop below 4,192 feet elevation, which poses the threat of "serious adverse effects." These include potential impacts on mineral production, recreation and air quality, as more exposed lakebed pushes dust toward communities during wind events.
There have already been a few dust events this year, some of which have been tied to the Great Salt Lake. The Utah Department of Environmental Quality is now taking steps to address that, said Tim Davis, the department's director and former Great Salt Lake deputy commissioner.
His department is working on a "comprehensive" dust monitoring plan with 19 initial monitoring sites that will be scattered by communities near the lake, as well as other dust hot spots west of the lake. He said the plan, which is still in a draft stage, will help researchers understand dust risks and set up a warning system for residents anytime there is a major dust event.
"So people who are sensitive — for example, if they have asthma — they can take steps to protect themselves," he said, adding that there's no clear timeline yet for when that network will be set up.
The lake's expected drop could also impact boating. Organizers of this year's Sailfest, which took place on Saturday, said they anticipated it could be the last time they're able to hold the event until conditions improve.
At the same time, local water managers say they've seen an uptick in water consumption, which could also impact how much water flows into the lake. That's a trend that Steed's office is also monitoring this summer.
"It's scary," he said. "We live within our own 'choose your own adventure' when it comes to the lake. How we use water will impact lake levels. And if we use less on our lawns and gardens, it turns out we'll have more water for the lake."
